行业资讯

期指收盘创新低 尾盘现大幅贴水

日期:2014-03-11
股指期货四大合约昨日全线大跌,盘中几无反弹。主力合约IF1403较前一交易日结算价暴跌3.93%,报收2062.8点;其余3个远月合约跌幅亦在3.9%附近。沪深300现货指数跌幅略小,下跌3.25%,报收于2097.79点。值得关注的是,期指与现指昨日双双创出股指期货上市以来的最低收盘价。
 
远东分析师提到,上周末公布的经济数据大幅低于市场预期是期指暴跌重要原因,并且昨日与股指走势较密切的国内工业品期货亦是哀鸿一片,沪产品、螺纹钢等多个品种跌停。虽然暴跌后不乏短线反抽的可能,但期指昨日的重挫伴随总持仓大增,并且尾盘创出巨幅贴水等多个信号亦表明当前的偏空格局未改。
 
期指暴跌巨幅贴水
 
昨日期指大幅下挫,主力合约破位大跌超过80点。而上证指数同样失守关键点位2000点整数大关,市场恐慌情绪较为浓重。
 
 
自上周末以来大宗工业品尤其是产品的暴跌是昨日期指遭遇黑色周一的重要诱因。陶勤英分析,上周末公布的经济数据大幅低于市场预期,加剧了市场对于进出口形势的担忧。此外,2月CPI数据虽然符合市场预期,但2月PPI不但延续下滑势头,且降幅扩大,体现企业也呈需求疲弱态势,引起对通缩的担忧。
 
值得关注的是,昨日期指与现指双双创出股指期货上市以来的最低收盘价。盘中IF1403最大贴水达到36.19点,幅度达1.73%。
 
远东期货资深研究员认为,由于IF1403基本没有太多受到沪深300成分股分红因素的影响,昨日的巨幅贴水似乎说明期指局势已经“失控”。由于再过2周到期交割,沪深300指数与IF1403会收敛一致。如此大的贴水幅度,使得做空股指期货成为了一件“不理智”的事情。
 
止跌需等实质性利好
 
值得关注的是,昨日的暴跌使得部分空头选择了获利离场,反之部分多头亦心生抄底之意,期指短线不乏反抽可能,但真正止跌回升须等待实质性利好出台。
 
从持仓量变化来看,当月合约前20席位多单增持2545手,空单减持1067手,次月合约前20席位多单增持1084手,空单增持876手。并且,就主力席位净空单来看,主力合约IF1403前20名会员净空单减少3188手至9326手,两个合约前20名会员净空单减少3165手至12891手。
 
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